Gladwell first looked at Canadian hockey teams and found that 40% of players were born between January and March, 30% born between April and June, 20% born between July and September, and only 10% born between October and December. But why does the month that someone is born in have any effect on how successful they are at hockey? It's really as simple as the cutoff date for age-class hockey. In Canada the eligibility cutoff is January 1. As Gladwell writes on page 24, "A boy who turns ten on January 2, then, could be playing alongside someone who doesn't turn ten until the end of the year - and at that age, in preadolescence, a twelve-month gap in age represents an enormous difference in physical maturity." Since those born at the beginning of the year will be more mature they will have a better chance of getting picked for extra coaching and ultimately go further with their hockey career.
A similar thing happens with European soccer. In England the cutoff date is August 1 but in International soccer the cutoff date is now January 1. In most cases, a majority of the players on a team were born in the three months after the cutoff date. Here Gladwell used the example of the Czechoslovakian National Junior soccer team and found that, once again, a majority of the players were born in January, February, and March. Of course this does not mean that there is no chance of one playing soccer with a birthday later in the year, it's just less likely.
Part of the reason this section stood out to me was because I am a big soccer fan. I started to wonder if the same thing happened with other soccer teams. So I did some research on our own soccer team, the New England Revolution. I found that out of the 29 current players 7 were born between January and March, 10 between April and June, 4 between July and September, and 8 between October and December. Looking at it this way, the only months that really stand out are July through September with only 4 players having birthdays. But looking at it month by month, all the months either have 1, 2, or 3 birthdays, except for May which has 6 players with birthdays. It appears that for Revolution soccer players it does not really matter what month you are born in, unless you are born in May in which case you might have a slightly better chance of making the team.
Interesting post, Sarah. As I read these three books I too found myself pausing to think about the author's revelations or sometimes even going back and rereading a paragraph or two so I could fully understand the new ideas.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I found your individual research on the Revolution interesting. I'm not much for soccer anymore so I don't know the cutoff date for youth soccer but based on what you found I'd predict May 1st. Why do you think the birth dates of the professional soccer players have a less dramatic correlation than other youth sports?
Well Brian, I asked myself a similar question while doing my research. Of course I only looked into the Revolution, with other professional teams there may be some sort of correlation. But honestly I think it might have to do with the players getting a spot on the team based solely on talent. I also looked into the ages of the players and I found the oldest, to be 38 while the youngest only 18 but most are in their twenties. Even though the youngest, Diego Fagundez, is only 18 and has the one February birthday he is the top scorer this season with 8 goals whereas most of the players born in May have barely scored at all. I think as far as the Revolution goes birth dates don't matter, they try to find the best players with the best abilities.
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